* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 42 52 59 65 66 69 68 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 42 52 59 65 66 69 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 39 43 46 49 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 18 14 13 14 12 7 9 5 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -5 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 1 1 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 79 59 47 52 49 22 40 18 26 360 311 321 341 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 160 160 160 157 152 146 145 143 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 75 74 70 69 63 60 60 58 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 16 16 17 17 18 16 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 57 67 77 90 96 83 78 49 22 12 31 44 49 200 MB DIV 126 103 77 76 71 59 56 31 52 40 26 9 1 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -4 -8 -9 -3 3 4 2 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1365 1294 1223 1134 1049 864 689 610 629 650 587 525 491 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.7 14.0 15.3 16.3 17.0 17.1 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.8 148.5 149.5 150.4 152.8 155.5 158.2 160.3 161.5 161.8 160.5 159.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 11 13 14 13 9 6 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 19 25 26 30 28 42 41 46 47 38 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 8. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 32. 39. 45. 46. 49. 48. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/20/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##