* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942015 08/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 38 43 46 49 53 56 59 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 38 43 46 49 53 56 59 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 31 34 36 39 43 48 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 7 6 4 10 10 7 3 4 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 1 1 -1 1 0 4 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 98 98 61 68 80 325 331 354 14 39 157 101 94 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 150 151 153 154 154 154 154 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 62 64 63 58 60 59 60 57 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 72 60 54 47 47 39 32 31 26 26 15 0 200 MB DIV 40 37 28 26 5 -13 -7 0 0 9 0 3 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2236 2218 2200 2190 2181 2200 2274 4106 3982 3859 3757 3652 3560 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 178.9 178.9 178.8 178.8 178.8 179.1 179.9 181.4 182.9 184.5 186.0 187.5 189.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 2 2 2 3 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 74 76 77 78 78 78 77 75 76 77 78 79 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 33. 36. 39. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##