* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 35 43 48 50 52 53 52 51 50 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 35 43 48 50 52 53 52 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 33 36 39 41 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 23 20 18 15 20 19 23 18 18 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 314 309 306 321 328 324 2 337 341 320 307 290 283 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 151 150 150 150 150 150 147 143 138 134 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 123 124 122 121 122 122 123 121 117 115 114 111 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 66 65 64 63 59 57 52 51 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 17 18 22 34 59 70 79 76 52 31 -11 -14 200 MB DIV 13 23 6 -3 13 18 10 10 13 17 16 29 19 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 4 0 4 5 6 LAND (KM) 952 988 1025 1039 1054 1047 1018 981 908 829 755 762 847 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 30.1 30.8 31.8 33.2 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 67.8 67.5 67.4 67.3 67.4 67.7 68.0 68.5 68.9 69.0 68.1 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 27 26 26 27 27 28 28 26 22 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 18 CX,CY: 16/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 325 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 23. 28. 30. 32. 33. 32. 31. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/20/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/20/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)