* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942015 08/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 31 34 38 40 41 43 46 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 31 34 38 40 41 43 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 8 6 4 8 2 4 2 4 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 119 111 101 104 115 286 334 355 288 235 271 45 51 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 150 150 151 152 152 154 152 152 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 65 64 63 59 60 61 58 55 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 62 53 49 46 40 33 24 16 8 11 11 -4 200 MB DIV 35 32 17 -4 -8 2 7 0 8 20 -5 3 -35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2172 2131 2089 2072 2055 2083 2176 4213 4110 4017 3940 3890 3861 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 178.4 178.1 177.8 177.7 177.6 178.0 179.0 180.5 181.9 183.3 184.5 185.5 186.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 1 4 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 62 59 56 55 54 59 67 75 75 73 71 71 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. 26. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##