* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 68 68 65 61 57 54 52 50 49 47 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 68 68 65 61 57 54 52 50 49 46 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 69 71 72 71 69 65 62 60 59 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 4 5 5 14 15 18 17 20 17 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 194 171 243 259 232 250 245 248 245 246 253 246 253 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 127 126 125 126 128 134 139 142 145 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 122 120 120 120 123 130 135 139 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 48 47 44 40 40 38 39 37 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 13 11 2 1 0 5 2 -2 -4 5 13 200 MB DIV -16 -14 -5 -8 0 11 14 0 -6 -29 -27 -7 6 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 -3 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1174 1159 1147 1140 1141 1112 1044 852 702 575 296 41 53 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.3 46.1 46.9 47.7 48.5 50.5 52.7 55.2 57.8 60.5 63.1 65.5 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 13 13 13 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 20 20 17 10 15 21 34 39 31 52 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/20/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED