* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 39 45 47 51 54 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 39 45 47 51 54 55 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 35 40 44 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 20 17 15 20 14 20 10 15 14 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 -7 -1 -1 0 -2 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 305 309 320 321 330 346 338 328 332 306 284 271 263 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 150 150 150 150 151 150 146 141 135 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 120 121 121 121 122 123 123 120 118 115 114 116 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 66 64 62 60 58 56 53 52 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 21 27 31 40 46 71 80 86 87 49 31 -1 11 200 MB DIV 29 12 0 13 35 0 35 -11 28 12 22 14 24 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 4 5 1 1 2 2 4 8 3 1 LAND (KM) 1018 1032 1047 1054 1061 1047 1018 974 894 810 765 839 785 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.3 31.3 32.9 34.9 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 67.3 67.2 67.2 67.2 67.4 67.7 68.0 68.5 68.7 68.2 66.2 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 7 10 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 25 17 18 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/20/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)