* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932015 08/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 53 63 74 81 84 84 86 84 83 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 53 63 74 81 84 84 86 84 83 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 43 48 60 74 85 91 91 87 83 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 15 13 12 8 10 3 6 3 15 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 2 4 8 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 54 67 77 56 44 25 7 19 334 257 271 256 259 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 159 157 151 146 146 145 143 138 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 68 70 70 68 68 67 70 72 74 73 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 18 17 18 19 21 22 24 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 91 97 102 102 103 85 59 39 13 26 29 50 47 200 MB DIV 83 77 68 61 42 36 41 82 70 85 65 53 36 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 2 6 9 10 10 13 12 LAND (KM) 1113 1036 967 889 826 730 671 621 545 380 202 32 100 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.4 13.7 15.3 17.0 18.5 19.8 21.2 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 149.5 150.5 151.6 152.8 154.1 156.6 158.8 160.2 160.7 160.3 159.3 158.5 158.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 13 13 11 10 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 28 31 36 53 42 41 38 26 14 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 15. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 33. 44. 51. 54. 54. 56. 54. 53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932015 INVEST 08/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932015 INVEST 08/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##