* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942015 08/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 34 39 42 44 46 48 50 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 34 39 42 44 46 48 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 26 27 28 28 30 32 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 2 4 9 9 5 4 0 6 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 2 1 7 SHEAR DIR 96 95 98 124 281 318 337 306 324 211 8 35 35 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 150 150 151 152 152 152 151 151 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 62 61 60 57 57 58 57 54 54 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 54 49 47 40 30 25 15 4 -3 -6 -3 -1 200 MB DIV 30 14 2 -1 1 -3 7 0 -2 -9 -38 -24 -23 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 2166 2127 2088 2079 2070 2102 2196 4288 4215 4118 4017 3950 3914 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 178.5 178.3 178.1 178.2 178.2 178.7 179.8 180.9 182.0 182.8 183.5 183.6 182.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 5 5 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 63 62 60 60 60 63 59 72 69 66 64 59 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 30. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##