* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 72 72 68 64 61 58 55 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 72 72 68 64 61 58 55 54 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 74 75 76 74 71 68 66 64 64 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 4 4 6 13 15 12 15 17 15 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 4 -1 0 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 190 302 301 267 247 263 251 242 230 250 253 270 263 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 125 125 127 131 138 141 143 146 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 121 120 120 122 126 133 137 139 140 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 12 14 700-500 MB RH 52 51 52 50 47 44 41 42 39 38 37 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 14 9 11 1 7 1 1 -11 -12 -9 -5 200 MB DIV -13 -6 0 4 9 -8 0 3 -25 -30 -11 -9 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 4 -2 0 -4 -3 -3 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 1148 1137 1135 1119 1105 1093 932 763 651 441 176 8 0 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.6 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.0 47.8 48.7 49.7 51.8 54.0 56.5 59.2 61.8 64.2 66.5 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 20 15 10 13 19 26 44 33 40 15 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 2. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/21/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED