* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 40 43 49 53 55 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 35 40 43 49 53 55 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 25 28 31 35 41 47 53 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 18 15 13 14 11 13 7 10 12 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -3 -5 -2 0 0 -1 -4 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 302 316 316 316 310 351 320 331 306 301 252 252 249 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 148 148 147 147 144 139 133 130 133 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 120 119 120 120 119 120 117 115 112 111 115 111 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 65 63 61 56 53 51 50 49 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 45 53 64 85 93 96 74 51 17 22 20 200 MB DIV 12 0 13 45 42 9 11 6 17 12 25 11 30 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 5 2 3 0 3 2 5 5 5 -7 LAND (KM) 1086 1094 1102 1091 1080 1050 1001 930 858 804 856 787 808 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.9 31.7 33.0 34.7 36.6 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.3 66.2 66.3 66.4 66.7 67.0 67.5 67.8 67.7 66.3 63.4 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 1 0 1 1 2 3 3 6 8 13 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 27 27 15 18 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/21/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)