* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032015 08/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 62 73 80 84 87 88 91 88 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 62 73 80 84 87 88 91 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 56 70 82 86 86 86 86 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 13 12 10 6 2 5 6 5 8 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 3 4 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 72 80 73 66 58 20 15 285 328 299 261 255 261 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 159 158 152 148 146 146 146 145 143 141 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 65 65 64 66 70 73 75 74 74 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 21 22 24 26 27 28 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 104 106 98 91 86 75 63 41 17 20 25 35 54 200 MB DIV 81 81 59 47 30 23 51 64 87 92 107 98 73 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -4 -2 -5 1 8 10 13 18 16 10 LAND (KM) 1037 919 812 748 716 726 796 742 647 540 417 326 274 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.6 14.8 16.1 17.3 18.4 19.4 20.1 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 150.8 152.1 153.4 154.9 156.4 159.6 161.9 163.2 163.5 163.3 162.7 162.2 161.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 15 10 7 6 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 30 30 35 46 41 61 61 57 57 59 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 32. 43. 50. 54. 57. 58. 61. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##