* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942015 08/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 42 44 48 51 52 52 52 52 52 51 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 42 44 48 51 52 52 52 52 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 39 43 46 50 52 52 53 54 57 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 6 9 12 9 7 3 7 10 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 0 1 0 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 96 64 220 280 293 319 320 303 330 310 343 340 309 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 151 152 152 152 151 150 150 154 155 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -51.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 56 53 54 53 53 52 53 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 47 44 38 35 22 19 11 -2 -5 -1 19 8 200 MB DIV 8 -8 -6 0 8 -2 12 13 -5 -25 -5 -20 11 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 2020 2002 1984 1993 2002 2077 4305 4194 4088 4011 3951 3917 2033 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.2 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 177.5 177.5 177.5 177.7 177.9 178.8 180.2 181.3 182.3 182.9 183.1 182.2 179.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 4 6 7 6 5 3 3 10 15 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 52 52 52 55 68 67 64 62 57 54 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942015 INVEST 08/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942015 INVEST 08/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##