* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 75 73 69 62 58 53 51 50 49 48 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 75 73 69 62 58 53 51 50 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 76 76 77 75 72 68 65 63 63 65 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 8 15 12 17 14 16 14 17 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 2 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 276 292 280 264 268 268 246 238 245 257 258 266 263 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 125 126 129 133 139 142 145 146 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 121 120 120 125 129 136 138 140 141 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 47 46 45 44 42 40 37 38 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 10 9 5 -4 2 2 -11 -15 -6 -4 -2 200 MB DIV -4 1 3 -7 -6 10 7 -12 -31 -16 -23 -1 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1123 1110 1107 1090 1080 999 814 677 568 291 49 53 24 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 47.9 48.8 49.8 50.8 53.0 55.4 57.9 60.6 63.2 65.7 68.2 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 14 10 10 15 24 36 38 36 52 60 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -13. -17. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/21/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 4( 13) 3( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)