* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 36 42 50 58 61 64 65 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 36 42 50 58 61 64 65 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 36 43 51 59 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 12 12 8 5 8 2 4 11 13 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 -5 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 310 303 287 296 334 342 318 353 214 172 190 209 274 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 150 148 148 145 139 133 128 129 128 116 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 122 121 121 119 115 110 107 108 107 97 95 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 3 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 64 62 58 57 58 57 55 53 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 38 47 55 62 65 78 71 87 62 51 41 20 9 200 MB DIV -1 9 51 38 -4 34 1 47 31 35 15 24 9 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 2 3 1 7 4 0 4 -2 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1164 1177 1191 1180 1170 1102 1016 924 853 738 628 619 662 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 31.2 32.1 33.3 34.8 36.6 38.2 39.5 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.3 65.0 65.0 64.9 65.2 65.7 66.2 66.1 64.9 62.9 60.3 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 3 3 5 5 7 8 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 21 21 17 16 24 18 13 18 11 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 22. 30. 38. 41. 44. 45. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/21/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED