* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032015 08/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 40 45 51 56 60 61 63 62 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 40 45 51 56 60 61 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 35 39 43 48 53 57 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 12 9 6 8 6 8 7 15 20 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 1 0 -3 -4 -7 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 81 73 49 34 360 329 282 297 280 269 275 269 254 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 156 154 149 146 145 146 144 142 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 67 67 67 68 73 77 79 76 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 16 15 15 16 17 19 20 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 92 83 72 60 48 29 22 -2 6 9 8 15 35 200 MB DIV 76 49 25 23 40 24 59 55 63 71 78 36 49 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 2 5 9 12 15 6 LAND (KM) 929 808 703 632 593 592 629 540 428 305 199 115 42 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.8 16.5 17.7 18.7 19.8 21.0 21.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 150.7 152.1 153.5 154.9 156.3 159.2 161.5 162.3 162.0 161.6 161.4 160.9 160.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 15 15 10 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 30 28 35 47 46 53 55 57 41 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 21. 26. 30. 31. 33. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##