* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR CP042015 08/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 44 46 47 48 48 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 44 46 47 48 48 48 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 38 40 40 39 40 42 44 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 11 10 11 7 7 7 10 13 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 -3 -3 -5 -1 3 15 5 SHEAR DIR 17 275 271 275 285 289 275 261 238 268 314 337 337 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 150 151 151 151 151 152 151 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 55 54 55 54 56 56 57 56 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 43 38 27 18 1 -3 -11 -14 -15 1 0 200 MB DIV -7 -8 5 5 1 14 -4 1 -22 -29 -25 -19 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 -2 6 4 LAND (KM) 1963 1959 1957 1970 1985 2042 2090 4125 4045 3950 3809 3741 1995 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.5 21.7 22.7 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 177.1 177.3 177.4 177.7 178.0 178.8 179.5 180.1 180.5 180.8 181.2 180.5 179.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 50 49 49 47 43 40 61 58 52 48 45 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##