* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 86 83 80 74 68 64 57 54 51 49 47 V (KT) LAND 85 87 86 83 80 74 68 64 57 54 51 49 37 V (KT) LGE mod 85 88 89 87 85 80 75 71 68 67 66 66 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 14 16 17 14 17 19 18 23 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 2 -2 -1 -3 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 279 268 265 266 258 251 247 238 241 250 265 258 275 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 126 127 131 136 141 144 146 146 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 120 121 122 126 132 138 140 141 140 136 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 12 14 13 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 46 44 42 43 40 39 38 40 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 9 1 3 1 -4 0 5 -3 -14 -9 0 0 -5 200 MB DIV -8 -1 -3 4 7 4 1 -13 -33 -15 -3 10 -9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 1 4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -5 -3 -4 1 LAND (KM) 1105 1094 1085 1071 1071 926 753 648 441 169 0 22 -49 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.7 49.7 50.7 51.8 54.0 56.4 59.0 61.8 64.4 66.8 69.2 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 10 10 13 19 27 44 33 39 16 26 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -21. -28. -31. -34. -36. -38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/21/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 7( 25) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)