* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR CP042015 08/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 38 40 42 43 45 46 44 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 38 40 42 43 45 46 44 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 32 33 35 39 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 12 11 10 8 7 2 7 6 10 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 6 8 10 SHEAR DIR 217 255 272 294 303 290 271 261 264 298 339 356 341 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 150 150 152 152 151 151 151 151 151 148 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 53 54 56 54 55 54 53 51 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 34 23 17 11 -5 -16 -30 -44 -25 -8 19 200 MB DIV 3 21 10 0 12 6 0 7 -13 -32 -24 -21 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 6 18 LAND (KM) 1959 1960 1962 1976 1992 2056 4150 4035 3953 3857 3760 2038 1989 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.6 22.7 24.2 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 177.2 177.4 177.5 177.8 178.1 179.0 180.0 180.5 180.5 180.4 180.1 179.6 178.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 7 6 4 4 6 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 50 49 48 47 42 37 55 52 48 44 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 14. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##