* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 49 56 58 61 61 61 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 49 56 58 61 61 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 29 34 39 44 49 53 56 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 8 11 10 11 5 10 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 360 353 3 7 356 1 14 12 349 321 262 267 274 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 157 156 154 153 152 152 151 148 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 57 59 60 62 58 55 55 52 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 7 12 9 21 37 25 27 25 28 20 6 200 MB DIV 5 16 32 42 42 40 32 17 -7 -4 13 12 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 8 LAND (KM) 1818 1870 1925 1978 2034 2127 2234 2322 2395 2213 2032 1839 1625 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.6 125.5 126.3 127.1 128.5 130.0 131.5 133.0 134.6 136.2 137.9 139.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 40 44 48 51 51 31 21 21 21 31 31 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 29. 36. 38. 41. 41. 41. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##