* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 97 91 87 75 69 63 58 54 51 49 48 V (KT) LAND 100 101 97 91 87 75 69 63 58 54 49 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 100 103 100 96 91 84 78 73 70 68 57 66 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 13 16 16 16 17 19 15 15 16 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -1 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 233 254 255 252 237 229 241 262 264 268 263 272 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 125 127 128 133 139 142 145 146 146 145 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 120 122 124 129 135 137 139 139 139 138 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 43 43 43 41 41 41 43 43 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 2 9 4 -3 -4 0 -4 -9 -11 -11 0 -4 -13 200 MB DIV -1 4 8 5 2 -13 5 -22 -3 -11 -7 0 -1 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 3 1 -3 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1116 1107 1101 1091 1029 853 732 600 342 95 0 -4 34 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.6 50.5 51.6 52.8 55.1 57.6 60.2 62.6 64.9 67.0 69.5 72.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 10 13 14 22 32 40 29 37 17 69 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -21. -26. -30. -33. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -9. -13. -25. -31. -37. -41. -46. -49. -51. -52. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/21/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 20( 38) 10( 44) 5( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)