* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 45 50 54 58 58 60 63 63 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 45 50 54 58 58 60 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 55 59 63 68 73 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 8 8 4 6 4 8 10 16 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 54 47 37 14 11 330 305 315 281 267 257 238 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 152 150 147 146 145 145 143 143 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 65 66 66 70 74 74 72 69 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 12 13 14 14 16 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 67 54 45 27 16 18 14 11 11 28 31 200 MB DIV 28 29 20 29 26 42 58 55 30 36 28 50 22 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 0 1 3 1 2 4 5 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 749 656 600 579 605 698 677 577 443 359 357 278 158 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 152.6 154.2 155.8 157.3 158.8 161.3 162.7 162.8 162.1 161.9 162.5 162.1 161.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 15 14 10 7 5 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 32 49 52 43 59 57 55 58 59 50 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 3. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 23. 25. 28. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##