* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR CP042015 08/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 48 49 48 48 49 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 48 49 48 48 49 49 46 42 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 48 49 49 48 48 48 51 53 53 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 12 10 11 7 7 5 8 10 17 29 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -2 -3 -6 -2 -4 0 3 14 7 2 SHEAR DIR 264 287 303 305 287 270 299 256 288 298 326 330 332 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 152 152 152 151 151 151 150 148 143 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 54 56 56 57 56 56 55 56 54 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 36 25 18 12 2 -8 -29 -42 -37 -12 15 47 200 MB DIV 22 7 0 12 11 -4 8 -15 -26 -22 -12 37 12 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 -4 7 10 24 LAND (KM) 1927 1925 1925 1956 1988 2061 2096 3932 3846 2035 1968 1921 1900 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.8 20.0 21.0 21.9 23.0 24.4 26.1 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 177.1 177.3 177.4 177.9 178.3 179.3 179.9 180.1 180.0 179.6 178.9 178.2 177.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 44 44 42 42 45 50 35 27 25 23 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##