* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 90 86 82 76 70 65 61 58 55 53 53 V (KT) LAND 95 93 90 86 82 76 70 65 61 58 54 41 34 V (KT) LGE mod 95 95 92 88 85 81 78 75 73 72 69 53 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 15 16 15 18 19 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -2 0 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 231 243 249 243 235 227 220 251 254 264 252 285 270 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 128 131 136 140 143 144 146 146 144 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 121 124 127 132 136 138 137 139 138 137 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 14 14 15 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 42 42 40 39 41 40 41 40 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 5 2 8 2 0 -5 -26 -22 -14 -23 -13 200 MB DIV -8 -1 -1 0 -7 2 -11 -7 -24 -23 -22 -12 3 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 0 -4 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -5 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1114 1099 1096 1052 952 769 676 494 249 10 43 -47 -3 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.3 51.3 52.5 53.7 56.3 58.8 61.2 63.4 65.6 67.9 70.2 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 12 14 17 26 41 35 44 13 62 70 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -40. -42. -42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/22/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 12( 27) 8( 33) 5( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)