* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 35 44 53 61 65 66 61 57 54 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 35 44 53 61 65 66 61 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 38 46 53 55 53 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 6 5 9 4 10 17 24 35 37 32 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -3 -5 -6 -2 -6 -2 -1 0 -4 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 270 269 207 213 175 193 193 218 229 253 278 309 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 26.7 24.9 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 145 141 138 132 131 122 105 99 102 106 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 122 119 117 111 109 102 88 84 84 86 90 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 4 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 59 59 60 60 66 65 56 47 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 55 56 55 48 42 51 53 66 18 11 19 200 MB DIV 33 3 15 47 36 42 40 35 29 -6 -5 -4 0 700-850 TADV 3 5 1 1 6 1 0 -14 -10 -31 -24 -18 5 LAND (KM) 1302 1359 1325 1260 1162 960 756 578 518 566 635 700 781 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.5 31.2 32.1 33.0 34.9 36.9 39.1 40.7 41.3 41.0 40.4 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.9 63.1 63.6 63.3 61.8 59.5 56.7 54.4 53.1 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 9 11 12 11 10 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 19 14 8 15 12 22 0 0 0 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 8. 4. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 41. 45. 46. 41. 37. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/22/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)