* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 31 34 38 46 51 56 60 66 70 72 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 31 34 38 46 51 56 60 66 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 29 29 32 36 41 47 54 62 69 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 7 6 7 10 4 9 12 14 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 1 -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 48 35 6 336 295 342 319 312 295 274 254 260 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 151 149 147 145 146 146 145 145 145 142 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 67 66 68 73 74 74 74 74 78 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 13 15 15 17 19 22 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 79 79 63 51 44 35 28 21 9 3 11 28 37 200 MB DIV 42 40 28 31 42 36 54 62 44 23 43 38 24 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -2 0 1 0 1 2 7 6 12 5 7 LAND (KM) 648 595 587 616 683 747 720 652 570 494 410 297 159 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.4 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 154.3 155.9 157.4 159.0 160.6 162.7 163.5 163.7 163.7 163.4 162.8 162.1 161.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 14 8 5 5 5 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 32 50 50 41 56 62 62 57 54 56 56 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 36. 40. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##