* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 46 48 48 51 51 52 53 55 59 60 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 46 48 48 51 51 52 53 55 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 45 45 45 46 48 52 56 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 8 8 3 9 11 21 15 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 0 0 7 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 281 302 308 292 292 278 267 259 258 287 271 214 104 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 152 152 152 153 153 151 148 144 141 135 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 11 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 57 55 56 56 57 60 60 60 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 6 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 36 25 16 15 10 -3 -17 -33 -14 27 53 67 36 200 MB DIV 15 5 11 5 1 5 10 -2 2 3 3 55 -15 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 6 13 16 15 LAND (KM) 1934 1944 1954 1979 2006 2064 2069 2018 1956 1893 1830 1795 1805 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.1 20.4 22.1 24.0 25.6 26.8 28.4 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 177.3 177.6 177.8 178.2 178.6 179.4 179.7 179.4 178.8 178.0 177.1 176.2 175.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 9 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 44 42 42 43 47 33 24 26 11 10 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 11. 11. 12. 13. 15. 19. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##