* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 38 46 54 60 61 57 55 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 30 38 46 54 60 61 57 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 43 50 53 53 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 8 4 3 8 16 28 40 39 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -6 -5 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 298 265 203 230 283 166 200 202 231 238 259 276 303 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.4 25.3 25.0 25.3 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 145 140 136 133 130 119 108 105 107 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 122 118 114 111 109 100 91 88 89 94 94 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 3 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 60 59 59 62 65 63 55 48 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 51 58 61 65 51 55 39 44 57 46 14 17 36 200 MB DIV 1 9 46 27 25 44 13 48 11 0 -9 13 -17 700-850 TADV 4 7 2 4 10 0 2 -7 -17 -38 -31 -19 0 LAND (KM) 1304 1280 1247 1198 1123 949 744 607 570 641 701 821 976 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.7 31.4 32.3 33.1 34.9 37.1 39.2 40.6 41.0 40.4 39.5 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.5 63.7 63.8 62.9 61.0 58.1 55.0 52.6 50.8 49.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 10 12 13 12 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 16 11 10 16 12 18 0 0 0 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 12. 8. 4. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 34. 40. 41. 37. 35. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/22/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED