* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 50 53 56 57 59 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 50 53 56 57 59 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 30 32 35 39 44 49 55 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 8 7 12 8 10 7 14 19 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 -6 -5 -5 -4 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 48 28 9 346 322 334 353 336 314 291 282 282 273 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 150 148 146 145 146 146 146 145 143 140 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 65 65 71 74 75 75 73 75 76 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 78 63 50 40 37 16 10 -2 -9 -17 -2 13 29 200 MB DIV 21 14 21 41 34 31 51 27 25 17 5 10 38 700-850 TADV -8 -4 0 -1 -2 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 645 622 644 696 774 771 711 648 585 478 333 227 140 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.8 17.7 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 156.0 157.5 159.0 160.4 161.8 163.2 163.8 164.0 163.9 163.3 162.2 161.5 161.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 11 7 5 4 4 5 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 50 51 42 42 58 63 62 57 54 60 46 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##