* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 48 50 52 55 59 65 70 66 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 48 50 52 55 59 65 70 66 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 42 42 42 42 44 48 53 59 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 13 18 24 14 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 0 2 4 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 299 300 287 280 269 290 239 256 252 237 241 284 300 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 152 154 153 152 150 146 140 136 131 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 57 56 57 58 60 62 65 68 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 12 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 14 13 7 -14 -27 -23 17 56 58 72 48 200 MB DIV 14 18 20 9 -9 7 6 7 22 23 60 7 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 2 17 16 21 19 LAND (KM) 1909 1926 1944 1970 1997 2019 1989 1923 1820 1747 1725 1775 1871 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 20.3 21.9 23.3 24.7 26.2 28.0 29.8 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 177.2 177.5 177.9 178.3 178.7 179.2 179.1 178.5 177.4 176.4 175.6 175.3 175.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 42 42 43 49 36 25 27 15 11 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 5. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 19. 25. 30. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##