* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 36 42 48 52 49 45 40 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 29 36 42 48 52 49 45 40 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 37 42 44 44 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 10 14 10 15 14 23 29 35 38 46 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 -4 1 -1 -1 -1 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 356 349 325 321 302 247 239 226 231 262 284 293 303 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 26.9 26.2 24.7 23.3 23.3 24.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 125 124 127 123 115 102 93 93 97 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 104 102 101 103 101 95 86 79 79 82 83 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 56 55 52 54 54 56 52 46 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 74 86 90 90 91 82 54 46 27 24 8 -7 -22 200 MB DIV 19 47 27 34 45 24 6 8 16 12 0 -19 -26 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 1 0 1 5 0 -7 -3 13 15 15 LAND (KM) 929 877 827 792 735 622 509 435 363 393 441 576 611 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.1 34.5 35.0 35.4 36.6 38.1 39.6 40.8 41.5 41.7 41.5 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.5 66.9 67.2 67.5 67.4 66.7 65.0 63.0 60.9 58.6 56.2 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 7 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 19 19 21 15 4 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 22. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 4. 0. -5. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 28. 32. 29. 25. 20. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/22/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)