* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 42 47 50 52 54 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 42 47 50 52 54 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 24 25 27 30 34 38 44 50 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 10 12 11 9 9 7 5 9 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -6 -5 -5 -6 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 7 353 319 331 358 358 9 350 300 262 267 270 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 150 148 147 146 146 146 147 147 146 144 142 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 65 67 69 72 71 70 69 70 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 67 49 39 36 30 8 4 -11 -20 -23 -7 9 29 200 MB DIV -1 -2 14 13 18 42 57 45 29 20 15 10 24 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 2 4 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 633 658 715 776 807 796 778 731 664 568 464 390 347 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.3 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 157.5 159.0 160.5 161.7 162.9 164.3 164.9 165.0 164.8 164.3 163.6 163.1 162.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 10 6 4 4 4 5 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 49 51 41 41 51 59 64 64 60 52 48 50 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 22. 25. 27. 29. 32. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##