* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 30 38 48 57 62 63 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 30 38 48 57 62 63 62 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 31 37 44 53 59 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 11 14 12 7 5 3 7 12 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 2 1 -4 -7 -9 -7 -7 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 32 12 16 24 26 48 58 93 139 195 237 243 259 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 155 156 155 155 154 153 151 149 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 63 65 65 67 63 62 63 62 60 59 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 27 37 44 46 48 44 47 48 52 54 58 200 MB DIV 17 30 40 51 45 39 26 27 60 51 49 47 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 3 6 LAND (KM) 2134 2190 2246 2307 2369 2437 2502 2367 2220 2046 1851 1605 1337 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.0 128.7 129.4 130.1 131.3 132.5 133.7 135.0 136.6 138.5 140.8 143.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 42 36 31 28 29 34 23 18 24 15 7 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 28. 37. 42. 43. 42. 41. 41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##