* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 58 56 53 51 48 48 50 53 56 56 V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 58 56 53 51 48 48 50 53 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 70 65 61 58 57 55 54 52 52 53 56 60 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 16 17 21 14 20 15 17 11 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 230 228 236 240 222 234 236 231 249 243 247 250 258 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 133 136 139 142 145 146 146 147 150 158 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 129 132 135 138 139 139 139 140 141 145 152 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 35 35 37 38 40 41 40 40 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 17 11 -2 -2 -7 -12 -25 -22 -51 -74 -70 -55 200 MB DIV 16 16 2 1 7 -13 2 -24 -16 0 11 12 11 700-850 TADV 5 -5 -4 -2 0 -3 0 0 -3 0 3 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1049 958 875 798 737 597 323 73 67 45 155 144 109 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.1 20.1 21.3 22.0 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.9 55.0 56.3 57.5 60.2 62.7 65.0 67.3 69.8 72.5 74.7 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 12 13 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 22 26 36 41 41 11 65 84 48 69 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. -22. -20. -17. -14. -14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/22/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)