* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 39 49 54 58 63 68 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 39 49 54 58 63 68 73 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 24 24 26 29 34 40 48 57 65 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 11 9 5 7 4 8 10 16 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -1 -4 -1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 10 339 309 320 332 321 322 291 280 256 232 228 242 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 148 147 147 147 146 146 146 145 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 68 67 69 69 69 67 67 71 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 14 14 16 19 22 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 51 38 36 29 16 11 -1 -3 -5 17 55 70 86 200 MB DIV -4 7 10 18 29 56 61 45 30 9 48 25 18 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 1 1 3 2 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 651 685 751 770 778 763 708 658 605 523 427 356 331 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.9 18.5 18.8 19.4 20.5 20.8 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 158.8 160.2 161.6 162.7 163.7 164.7 165.0 164.9 164.5 164.0 163.6 163.0 162.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 11 8 6 4 3 3 5 4 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 36 42 52 56 63 62 57 53 45 38 41 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 14. 24. 29. 33. 38. 43. 48. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##