* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 48 50 54 54 48 41 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 48 50 54 54 48 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 27 27 29 32 36 39 39 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 12 13 7 10 18 27 17 7 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 4 2 -1 1 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 301 301 285 279 295 275 258 234 233 224 310 313 310 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.3 26.7 25.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 153 153 152 149 143 138 132 120 113 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 55 54 56 59 63 67 61 58 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 9 9 11 10 7 3 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 8 0 -15 -36 -25 14 40 59 24 42 37 200 MB DIV 19 15 -10 11 16 9 25 50 41 17 -9 40 34 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 3 4 0 2 5 21 17 12 23 16 LAND (KM) 1998 2018 2041 2051 2064 2028 1924 1798 1685 1725 1926 2178 2450 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.7 22.2 23.7 25.3 27.1 29.3 32.0 34.2 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 178.4 178.8 179.2 179.5 179.7 179.5 178.5 177.1 175.5 175.0 175.7 177.2 179.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 11 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 46 49 46 33 22 22 11 8 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -4. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -1. 0. 2. 2. -3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 20. 24. 24. 18. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##