* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 47 53 59 60 59 59 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 47 53 59 60 59 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 35 42 49 52 54 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 13 14 7 8 6 5 12 12 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 1 0 -6 -7 -9 -8 -3 -3 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 27 32 32 33 34 63 61 138 175 220 236 235 263 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 155 155 154 154 153 152 151 148 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 66 65 62 63 62 62 60 61 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 36 44 53 51 57 53 52 51 69 76 81 79 200 MB DIV 26 44 59 49 45 39 39 56 66 59 52 38 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 2182 2234 2287 2337 2388 2427 2473 2342 2194 2034 1828 1582 1332 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.6 129.2 129.9 130.5 131.5 132.7 133.8 135.1 136.6 138.6 140.9 143.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 9 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 29 26 24 24 21 18 19 23 15 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 27. 33. 39. 40. 39. 39. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##