* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 29 36 44 52 53 56 53 50 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 29 36 44 52 53 56 53 50 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 28 34 41 47 51 51 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 14 9 6 11 9 16 23 30 40 39 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -2 0 -4 -3 -3 -2 1 0 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 312 322 315 256 259 244 255 248 272 281 295 305 311 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 25.9 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 126 126 127 126 128 115 109 111 113 112 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 102 102 102 103 104 108 99 95 96 95 92 94 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 5 4 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 52 49 53 53 56 52 46 38 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 12 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 87 93 95 98 81 59 35 49 60 59 48 38 21 200 MB DIV 37 24 34 53 18 20 20 34 -2 2 -9 -15 -36 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 0 2 -1 4 -4 13 0 -2 -7 -11 LAND (KM) 769 731 694 688 670 582 567 509 605 724 931 1111 1224 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.6 34.9 35.3 35.7 37.0 38.4 39.9 40.7 40.2 38.9 37.7 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.0 68.3 68.3 68.3 67.4 65.1 61.7 57.0 52.4 48.9 47.2 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 4 4 4 6 9 14 17 18 16 12 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 20 22 24 13 11 3 0 0 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 831 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 3. -1. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 16. 24. 32. 33. 36. 33. 31. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/23/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)