* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 08/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 57 61 63 63 64 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 57 61 63 63 64 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 46 54 61 65 65 65 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 11 9 13 9 19 23 29 22 25 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 0 3 1 1 3 0 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 66 62 34 358 348 314 289 275 297 303 314 311 SST (C) 28.4 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 135 129 126 125 125 124 125 128 134 139 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 139 131 128 127 126 123 122 124 129 134 137 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 64 65 60 60 58 56 56 53 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 107 98 91 84 64 37 9 -28 -51 -67 -80 -94 200 MB DIV 15 -7 -18 -12 -9 5 11 9 -11 -21 -2 -15 -13 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -7 -13 -11 -8 -8 -9 -5 -10 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 1304 1492 1682 1878 1966 1712 1530 1434 1337 1137 959 671 446 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.5 31.3 33.1 34.9 36.8 40.6 44.4 47.8 50.9 53.8 56.6 59.4 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 19 19 18 16 15 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 9 7 6 4 4 6 24 19 38 48 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 32. 36. 38. 38. 39. 41. 43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 08/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 08/23/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED