* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 51 60 66 69 73 78 81 81 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 51 60 66 69 73 78 81 81 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 43 49 57 66 76 85 90 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 12 10 7 6 6 11 13 14 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 -4 -1 4 4 SHEAR DIR 321 303 314 330 338 320 308 266 269 265 250 249 245 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 147 146 146 146 145 144 143 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 65 66 70 69 68 67 67 66 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 17 19 23 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 34 23 21 18 0 -9 -5 17 34 60 68 200 MB DIV 4 12 5 10 37 62 49 25 5 15 26 22 15 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 0 1 3 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 645 715 732 723 727 700 652 597 520 467 465 413 328 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.5 162.8 163.6 164.3 164.7 164.9 164.7 164.1 163.7 163.8 163.4 162.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 11 9 6 4 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 45 58 60 63 63 56 47 42 42 39 41 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 36. 39. 43. 48. 51. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##