* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 47 51 58 62 66 66 61 58 54 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 47 51 58 62 66 66 61 58 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 42 44 48 53 59 62 62 58 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 11 12 9 9 14 28 19 7 16 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -5 -3 -2 4 2 1 -1 -5 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 311 292 278 291 290 279 240 226 221 239 315 288 265 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.8 25.7 24.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 153 153 150 144 136 133 121 112 90 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 54 54 58 63 69 64 58 55 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 8 9 12 11 9 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 10 -9 -23 -28 14 54 74 59 78 73 32 200 MB DIV 18 -1 13 4 10 19 73 43 48 17 53 38 52 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 2 1 5 2 24 21 19 4 19 11 LAND (KM) 2031 2055 2082 2072 2065 1964 1837 1751 1779 1953 2252 2481 2271 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.6 21.4 23.3 25.2 27.4 29.7 31.9 34.0 36.0 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 178.9 179.3 179.7 179.8 179.8 178.9 177.5 176.1 175.4 176.1 178.3 179.7 180.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 44 47 46 39 24 22 9 6 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 5. 2. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 16. 23. 27. 31. 31. 26. 23. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##