* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 38 37 38 38 40 42 47 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 38 37 38 38 39 41 47 52 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 50 44 40 38 37 36 35 35 36 38 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 19 20 16 19 17 16 11 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 236 225 221 229 221 224 246 248 253 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 139 141 142 145 146 146 146 149 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 134 136 137 138 140 141 139 138 139 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 37 37 38 39 39 39 39 38 38 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 4 3 1 -1 -6 -24 -31 -57 -80 -92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 5 9 3 7 -1 -7 -25 -1 10 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -4 -8 -6 -2 -2 -1 2 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 822 744 687 657 579 296 23 71 17 122 181 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.3 18.2 19.1 19.9 21.0 22.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.6 57.9 59.2 60.5 63.1 65.5 68.0 70.4 72.6 74.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 30 41 48 41 29 24 61 52 46 70 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -13. -12. -12. -10. -8. -3. 3. 6. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/23/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)