* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 08/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 39 49 59 66 70 75 76 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 39 49 59 66 70 75 76 80 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 39 47 56 66 73 78 82 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 12 11 8 5 6 13 13 16 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 1 4 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 37 20 22 8 6 22 342 313 284 301 295 306 295 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 126 126 127 123 125 126 130 136 140 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 128 127 127 128 123 122 122 125 132 134 136 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 60 60 56 60 58 58 58 55 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 13 14 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 104 97 95 100 87 60 54 21 -4 -13 -29 -34 -41 200 MB DIV -18 -29 -24 -5 24 21 10 4 -3 13 -1 -1 0 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -14 -21 -15 -12 -7 -10 -1 -7 -7 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1694 1890 1937 1797 1671 1458 1317 1241 1084 910 807 559 335 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 33.2 35.1 36.9 38.8 40.6 44.3 47.5 50.4 53.0 55.6 58.1 60.4 62.6 STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 18 18 18 17 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 5 6 6 14 15 18 23 49 42 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 24. 34. 41. 45. 50. 51. 55. 57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 08/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 08/23/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)