* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 52 58 63 65 68 69 71 70 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 52 58 63 65 68 69 71 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 54 62 71 78 83 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 13 11 10 9 6 6 7 11 12 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 -6 -3 -4 -1 -4 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 304 307 323 327 326 334 349 294 262 268 256 255 260 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 146 145 146 145 145 144 145 144 144 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 67 67 69 69 65 64 63 64 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 16 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 16 5 3 -7 -16 -25 -25 -17 -2 26 28 200 MB DIV 2 2 8 32 30 49 43 20 15 5 13 7 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 757 763 754 752 756 731 672 622 583 538 487 428 372 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.3 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 161.6 162.6 163.6 164.1 164.6 164.9 164.9 164.7 164.4 164.1 163.8 163.4 162.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 55 58 59 59 58 56 53 50 47 45 46 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 22. 28. 33. 35. 38. 39. 41. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##