* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 45 48 56 61 65 66 64 63 63 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 45 48 56 61 65 66 64 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 45 48 51 54 55 53 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 11 10 13 24 24 11 15 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 1 8 6 -3 -4 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 291 295 287 274 276 227 206 190 10 312 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 27.9 27.3 26.8 25.5 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 154 153 145 138 133 120 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 56 57 61 65 68 57 48 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 9 12 13 14 17 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 -11 -23 -25 -11 58 78 83 52 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 5 13 18 26 39 48 61 44 54 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 0 3 6 18 9 10 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2044 2037 2033 2012 1995 1856 1692 1747 1978 2276 2387 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.5 24.3 26.7 29.2 31.9 34.4 36.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.2 179.3 179.4 179.3 179.2 177.8 175.7 175.3 176.4 178.3 180.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 13 14 13 14 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 49 47 39 30 21 11 9 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 21. 26. 30. 31. 29. 28. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##