* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 38 45 50 52 52 52 52 53 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 38 45 50 52 52 52 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 36 41 44 46 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 15 10 8 7 7 5 12 12 14 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 -2 -6 -6 -9 -7 -5 -3 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 33 30 34 52 65 85 157 204 228 235 233 240 255 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 152 152 151 152 151 150 146 142 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 65 63 60 60 58 55 55 59 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 52 53 61 58 60 62 73 64 71 73 76 200 MB DIV 72 63 52 35 35 34 56 49 32 43 21 20 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 3 3 5 0 LAND (KM) 2272 2311 2347 2359 2371 2400 2381 2237 2063 1855 1613 1352 1111 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.8 130.4 130.9 131.3 132.2 133.2 134.5 136.1 138.0 140.2 142.6 144.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 26 23 22 19 17 19 26 26 11 9 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##