* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 08/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 58 62 65 67 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 58 62 65 67 67 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 53 60 64 66 68 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 11 10 4 8 12 20 20 20 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 3 2 -4 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 20 13 8 5 355 359 307 276 290 280 292 278 303 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 128 127 124 125 126 132 137 141 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 129 129 127 122 122 122 127 131 134 137 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 57 57 61 61 60 58 59 56 57 55 55 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 15 16 14 14 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 103 99 94 87 72 46 39 -1 -19 -19 -26 -28 -42 200 MB DIV -27 -16 7 35 20 17 10 7 -7 6 9 17 5 700-850 TADV -8 -16 -21 -16 -13 -10 -6 -5 -5 -7 -7 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 1889 1922 1786 1663 1555 1395 1301 1250 1060 930 770 532 340 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.3 19.0 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.8 38.5 40.3 42.1 45.4 48.5 51.2 53.7 56.1 58.4 60.7 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 18 17 15 14 13 12 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 4 7 10 13 18 18 28 59 42 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 37. 40. 42. 42. 44. 45. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 08/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 08/23/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)