* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 47 52 57 59 60 61 60 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 47 52 57 59 60 61 60 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 52 60 67 71 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 12 14 10 10 6 8 12 18 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 300 312 325 334 341 342 333 301 284 265 267 270 276 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 146 146 147 147 145 145 146 145 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 68 69 67 69 68 68 69 69 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 27 13 8 6 4 -11 -35 -38 -33 -21 -7 2 30 200 MB DIV 8 11 35 47 57 52 49 13 10 2 8 25 15 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 2 1 -1 -1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 845 842 849 843 839 792 695 645 624 585 517 467 423 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.3 18.2 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 163.3 164.0 164.7 165.0 165.3 165.5 165.1 164.9 164.8 164.5 164.0 163.7 163.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 4 4 5 4 2 1 2 3 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 54 55 54 55 56 53 51 49 45 44 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 22. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##