* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 51 57 65 70 67 58 58 60 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 51 57 65 70 67 58 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 40 43 47 51 50 44 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 10 10 13 12 25 20 0 17 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 2 8 8 0 -4 3 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 301 298 284 279 264 225 209 288 338 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.2 26.5 25.2 20.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 153 149 142 137 131 119 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 5 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 59 59 63 68 63 53 53 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 14 15 15 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -13 -22 -29 -28 20 82 108 99 77 78 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 4 21 30 17 72 69 48 35 52 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 5 4 25 27 25 16 19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2047 2027 2012 1960 1913 1788 1701 1762 1990 2368 2092 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.4 25.3 27.6 29.9 32.4 35.4 38.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.4 179.4 179.3 178.9 178.4 177.0 175.5 175.1 176.2 178.7 182.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 15 21 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 46 36 28 22 19 14 4 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 11. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 30. 35. 32. 23. 23. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##