* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 36 41 44 45 47 49 52 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 36 41 44 45 47 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 27 30 33 35 36 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 8 6 9 9 10 9 8 8 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 -5 -8 -9 -10 -5 -4 -6 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 35 34 57 79 84 143 171 173 202 194 200 192 198 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 151 150 151 153 151 148 146 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 63 61 62 61 60 56 58 60 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 48 57 52 53 59 73 77 75 82 76 87 200 MB DIV 68 40 30 42 44 56 62 50 39 47 43 34 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 2194 2222 2246 2262 2279 2314 2392 2285 2087 1871 1636 1405 1204 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 128.7 129.2 129.7 130.1 130.5 131.4 132.6 134.1 136.0 138.1 140.4 142.7 144.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 8 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 26 23 21 20 21 19 22 21 12 15 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 25. 27. 29. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##