* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 38 39 40 42 45 50 54 57 58 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 38 39 40 35 36 33 30 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 37 37 36 36 32 33 30 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 18 14 21 19 23 15 16 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 233 246 251 235 241 254 256 261 258 296 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 143 143 145 143 145 154 158 167 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 139 140 140 141 138 138 146 148 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 16 15 15 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 37 38 39 39 38 37 42 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 4 -2 2 0 -1 -9 -44 -65 -71 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 2 2 2 9 0 -5 0 7 18 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -9 -7 -4 -4 -4 1 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 613 578 578 441 307 111 56 -19 22 -32 -31 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.2 59.5 60.8 62.1 63.4 66.0 68.6 71.0 73.3 75.3 77.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 60 45 38 35 47 53 72 65 84 100 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/23/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)